CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001)

Note that the CME starting on 2014-02-04T01:25Z is predicted to arrive at Earth on 2014-02-07T00:38Z and later the CME starting on 2014-02-04T16:39Z is predicted to arrive at Earth at around 2014-02-07T12:00Z.
--
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME update
##
## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-05T00:25:38Z
## Message ID: 20140205-AL-001
## Summary:
Update on C-type CME with ID 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140204-AL-002). A second C-type CME (2014-02-04T16:39:00-CME-001) emerged from roughly the same location, and these CMEs were modeled together. The simulation indicates that both CMEs have the potential to impact geospace and Mars. 
Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME(s) may affect and Mars. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-02-09T06:24Z (plus or minus 7 hours). 
The simulation also indicates that the CME(s) may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-07T00:38Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Updated CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2014-02-04T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~660 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 62 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).
Activity ID: 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2014-02-04T16:39Z.
Estimated speed: ~570 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 20/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2014-02-04T16:39:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001, 2014-02-04T16:39:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070100_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
--
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CMEs
##
## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-04T14:11:40Z
## Message ID: 20140204-AL-002
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / STEREO B / SOHO. 
Start time of the event: 2014-02-04T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~660 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 62 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).
Activity ID: 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 
Start time of the event: 2014-02-04T08:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~365 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -136/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2014-02-04T08:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME(s) may affect Mars. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2014-02-09T07:15Z (plus or minus 7 hours). 
The simulation also indicates that the CME(s) may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-07T04:07Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-02-04T01:25:00-CME-001, 2014-02-04T08:48:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140204_070000_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
## Notes: 
[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score
NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer
Data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it "as is".
Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.
The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.
For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center 
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement